The price of Bitcoin broke above $63,000 to set a new all-time high. This breakout was critical for Bitcoin as the price prediction tool called Pi Cycle Top Indicator predicts the price level just above $60,000 to be the market top for Bitcoin during this bull market. However, with the breakout of the pennant formation that Bitcoin traded within for the past 9 weeks this prediction tool has most likely been invalidated.
The Pi cycle top Indicator is a moving average cross calculation. Looking back at Bitcoins historic price action, the indicator is effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days. It uses the 111 day moving average and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average x 2. For the past three market cycles, when the 111 day moving average moves up and crosses the 350 day moving average x 2, the price of Bitcoin has peaked shortly after.
Pi cycle top indicator. Source: LookIntoBitcoin.com
Several professional traders incl. Kevin Svenson, Kevin Svenson Crypto, has however questioned the validity of the Pi Cycle Top Indicator: “Every time the moving averages have crossed in the past, it’s been the market cycle top. That is really the only argument for the Pi Cycle Top….Personally, I think that this is a coincidence, Philip Swift who developed Pi Cycle Top in 2019, was able to look back at historic data and create this calculation to get these two moving averages to cross at the peak of every bull run. That does not have anything to do with Bitcoin from a fundamental perspective. My personal prediction is that when the moving averages cross …or when we go towards 70,000, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator will likely be proven wrong.”